Though college football’s regular season has all but come to an end, it was striking how similar Boise State haters resembled those in the political establishment who despise another anti-establishment, unconventional figure from the frontier: Sarah Palin. […]
In a hypothetical 2012 contest between Palin and Obama, the chattering class would dismiss an Obama victory as having been a foregone conclusion because they would have expected nothing less. The mainstream (or “lamestream,” in Palin’s vernacular) media’s expectation setters and narrative framers would expect nothing less than an Obama landslide because they cannot even imagine the possibility of a Palin Presidency.
But should Palin pull off what elites think is unthinkable and unimaginable and defeat Obama in a general election, reporters will deem it the most catastrophic flop in the history of Presidential politics. […]
Looking at three prominent indicators analysts often employ to study outcomes of Presidential elections – the economy, the "beer test," and the contrast test – Palin stands to potentially come out on top of Obama in all three areas.
First, of course, is the economy....Second, another metric used to analyze elections is the proverbial “beer test,” which essentially holds that the candidate voters would most like to have a beer with wins the election. I call this the “populist” test. And since 1980, the candidate who has most successfully portrayed himself as the more populist candidate has won every election...Third, scholars also believe that voters often elect a President who is a dynamic contrast from the previous President. […]
Is it not plausible that Palin could win Ohio (her natural constituency may be the blue collar, white male workers who have been displaced, and they may turn out in droves to vote for her), Florida (with her staunch support of Israel), Missouri (where Proposition C, a direct rebuke to “Obama Care,” passed with overwhelming support earlier this year), and Colorado (she can turn out Evangelicals in Colorado Springs in a state whose Democrats are running away from Obama) and thus win the election? To anyone so sure and confident that Palin cannot win a general election, I ask: Would you bet your mortgage that she could not win these swing states?
Discounting Palin’s chances of becoming President would be akin to discounting Boise State’s chances of winning a BCS title game had they qualified for it, and those who openly and vociferously brush aside Palin and Boise State are only revealing their own set of inherent—and, dare I say, elitist—biases.
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